War again, war again, jiggity jig

[hudebnik]

So some time last night the United States started bombing Iran, without (of course) Congressional authorization or UN authorization or any kind of imminent, sudden threat other than "they're not showing us the submissive respect we deserve at the negotiating table". The Supreme Leader, Khamenei, has reportedly been killed (although that's just what the Trump administration says, cum libra salis), and Trump is exhorting the Iranian military to "lay down your weapons" and the Iranian people to "take over your government", assuring them that "the people of America have your backs". If anything would get the people of Iran to support their government, it would be the knowledge that America wanted them to overthrow it.

As the New York Times points out,

• there's nobody for the Iranian military to surrender their weapons to,


• there are 90 million Iranian people, and no obvious way to decide which of them should "take over the government", since there is no prominent, recognized opposition party, and


• the traditional ways that the US government has communicated with the people of oppressive regimes, such as Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (which includes the Persian-language Radio Farda), were all shut down or de-staffed by DOGE a year ago.

In short, he's apparently decapitated an autocratic regime with no realistic plan for what should come next. Is anyone surprised?

My bet for "what comes next?" is either (a) some prominent assistant to Khamenei quickly steps into his shoes, and nothing changes domestically, as in Venezuela, or (b) Iran has at least a few months of anarchy and feuding among rival warlords before one of them beats the rest and becomes the new autocrat.

And I bet Trump would be fine with either of those outcomes, as long as the eventual ruler of Iran shows proper obeisance to Trump.

Comments

Thoughts

[ysabetwordsmith]

>> So some time last night the United States started bombing Iran,<<

Hardly a surprise.

>> without (of course) Congressional authorization or UN authorization or any kind of imminent <<

He's largely above the law since people so rarely hold him accountable for his actions. Of course this results in more criminal behavior. They knew what he was when they picked him up.

>>My bet for "what comes next?" is either (a) some prominent assistant to Khamenei quickly steps into his shoes, and nothing changes domestically, as in Venezuela, or (b) Iran has at least a few months of anarchy and feuding among rival warlords before one of them beats the rest and becomes the new autocrat.<<

Both logical possibilities.