![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Entry tags:
If Zelensky wants to make nice with Trump...
... there are actually things he could say that are both true (so he can look himself in the mirror) and flattering to Trump.
From this article...
When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, a number of its nuclear weapons were stationed in Ukraine. Ukraine didn't really want to be a nuclear power, so (with some back-and-forth, over the course of several years) they agreed to move their nuclear weapons to Russia, while joining various international treaties. But Ukraine was worried that Russia would invade it. So in 1994, the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, each country promising to respect the sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine (and Byelorus and Kazakhstan, which aren't relevant here). The same day, the START treaty was ratified by all parties and came into effect.
In 2009, the START treaty expired and was not renewed, but the US and Russia issued a joint statement that the Budapest Memorandum was still in effect; all signatory nations were still obliged to respect Ukraine's existing borders and sovereignty.
Russia has invaded Ukraine twice since then: in 2014, and again in 2022, violating that promise. (Russia's official position is that the memorandum was directed at the legitimate government of Ukraine, and since Ukraine in 2014 kicked out its pro-Moscow President, its government was no longer legitimate so the memorandum no longer applied.)
Anyway, Ukraine has every reason to fear that even if it gives up some territory in a peace agreement with Russia, Russia will be back in a few years to capture even more Ukrainian territory, and again and again until there is no nation of Ukraine -- which Putin has said openly is his goal.
Now, Zelensky can point out (if Trump doesn't do it first) that both times Russia invaded Ukraine, there was a Democrat in the White House. As far as Trump is concerned, Russia will never break its word as long as he's President, because he is just that awesome a negotiator and Putin respects him.
Zelensky doesn't have to sincerely believe that, only to point out that Trump won't be President forever, and it would be nice if his country didn't get invaded by Russia even after its benevolent protector, Donald Trump, is gone. So they need some kind of guarantee that's binding even on the next President after Trump, whom Putin or his successor might not respect as much. (Trump is all in favor of binding people other than himself.)
Now, I don't know how likely this is to actually change Trump's mind. His Ukraine-related statements over the past few weeks consistently support Russian talking points, and seem calculated to provide an excuse to actively support Russia against Ukraine. If he's committed to do that, he's probably going to do that. But Zelensky has little to lose by at least trying an approach like this.
From this article...
When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, a number of its nuclear weapons were stationed in Ukraine. Ukraine didn't really want to be a nuclear power, so (with some back-and-forth, over the course of several years) they agreed to move their nuclear weapons to Russia, while joining various international treaties. But Ukraine was worried that Russia would invade it. So in 1994, the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, each country promising to respect the sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine (and Byelorus and Kazakhstan, which aren't relevant here). The same day, the START treaty was ratified by all parties and came into effect.
In 2009, the START treaty expired and was not renewed, but the US and Russia issued a joint statement that the Budapest Memorandum was still in effect; all signatory nations were still obliged to respect Ukraine's existing borders and sovereignty.
Russia has invaded Ukraine twice since then: in 2014, and again in 2022, violating that promise. (Russia's official position is that the memorandum was directed at the legitimate government of Ukraine, and since Ukraine in 2014 kicked out its pro-Moscow President, its government was no longer legitimate so the memorandum no longer applied.)
Anyway, Ukraine has every reason to fear that even if it gives up some territory in a peace agreement with Russia, Russia will be back in a few years to capture even more Ukrainian territory, and again and again until there is no nation of Ukraine -- which Putin has said openly is his goal.
Now, Zelensky can point out (if Trump doesn't do it first) that both times Russia invaded Ukraine, there was a Democrat in the White House. As far as Trump is concerned, Russia will never break its word as long as he's President, because he is just that awesome a negotiator and Putin respects him.
Zelensky doesn't have to sincerely believe that, only to point out that Trump won't be President forever, and it would be nice if his country didn't get invaded by Russia even after its benevolent protector, Donald Trump, is gone. So they need some kind of guarantee that's binding even on the next President after Trump, whom Putin or his successor might not respect as much. (Trump is all in favor of binding people other than himself.)
Now, I don't know how likely this is to actually change Trump's mind. His Ukraine-related statements over the past few weeks consistently support Russian talking points, and seem calculated to provide an excuse to actively support Russia against Ukraine. If he's committed to do that, he's probably going to do that. But Zelensky has little to lose by at least trying an approach like this.