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Grasping at straws of hope for removing Trump...
There's a lot of talk about the three or four self-styled "moderate" or "independent" Republican Senators, or Senators from "purple states" who have more to fear from a general election than from a primary, who might conceivably vote to convict Trump in the impeachment trial. They're clearly not enough to make up a 2/3 super-majority and remove (or otherwise punish) the President; at best they might provide the "moral victory" of a majority.
But it occurs to me there's another category of possible votes against Trump: those Senators who are close enough to retirement that they don't have much to fear from any election. So I looked up the 53 currently serving Republican Senators and figured out their ages at next election (or rather, their ages as of the January following their next election, at which time they would be re-sworn-in if re-elected).
Chuck Grassley: 90
Richard Shelby: 89
James Inhofe: 87
Pat Roberts: 85
Lamar Alexander: 81
Johnny Isakson: 79
Mitch McConnell: 79
James Risch: 78
Mitt Romney: 78
Michael Enzi: 77
Deb Fischer: 74
Roger Wicker: 74
John Barrasso: 73
Marsha Blackburn: 73
Roy Blunt: 73
John Boozman: 73
Rick Scott: 73
Mike Crapo: 72
John Kennedy: 72
David Perdue: 72
Mike Braun: 71
Susan Collins: 69
John Cornyn: 69
Jerry Moran: 69
Richard Burr: 68
Shelley Moore Capito: 68
Ron Johnson: 68
Rob Portman: 68
Mike Rounds: 67
Lindsay Graham: 66
John Hoeven: 66
Lisa Murkowski: 66
Bill Cassidy: 64
Kevin Cramer: 64
Cindy Hyde-Smith: 62
John Thune: 62
Pat Toomey: 62
Thom Tillis: 61
Rand Paul: 60
Steve Daines: 59
Tim Scott: 58
Martha McSally: 57
Dan Sullivan: 57
Ted Cruz: 55
James Lankford: 55
Mike Lee: 52
Marco Rubio: 52
Joni Ernst: 51
Todd Young: 51
Ben Sasse: 49
Cory Gardner: 47
Josh Hawley: 46
Tom Cotton: 44
So if every Republican Senator who would be over 70 at the start of his/her next term voted to convict, that would do it. I don't realistically expect that, but a few of these could happen. (Starting with Romney, I guess.) Add in some younger Senators who either consider themselves mavericks, come from "purple" states, have publicly criticized Trump, have been publicly insulted by Trump (which amounts to the same thing), or would prefer to see a theocrat like Pence in office: Collins, Cruz, Gardner, Graham, Paul, Portman, and Rubio. There are a few more who don't face re-election until 2024, by which time voters will have other things on their minds than a 2020 vote on impeachment. McConnell is in lock-step with Trump now, but his loyalty is to the Republican Party, and if the wind blew the right way and he thought throwing Trump under a bus would save the Party, he would.
Still a long shot, but I'll take anything I can get....
But it occurs to me there's another category of possible votes against Trump: those Senators who are close enough to retirement that they don't have much to fear from any election. So I looked up the 53 currently serving Republican Senators and figured out their ages at next election (or rather, their ages as of the January following their next election, at which time they would be re-sworn-in if re-elected).
Chuck Grassley: 90
Richard Shelby: 89
James Inhofe: 87
Pat Roberts: 85
Lamar Alexander: 81
Johnny Isakson: 79
Mitch McConnell: 79
James Risch: 78
Mitt Romney: 78
Michael Enzi: 77
Deb Fischer: 74
Roger Wicker: 74
John Barrasso: 73
Marsha Blackburn: 73
Roy Blunt: 73
John Boozman: 73
Rick Scott: 73
Mike Crapo: 72
John Kennedy: 72
David Perdue: 72
Mike Braun: 71
Susan Collins: 69
John Cornyn: 69
Jerry Moran: 69
Richard Burr: 68
Shelley Moore Capito: 68
Ron Johnson: 68
Rob Portman: 68
Mike Rounds: 67
Lindsay Graham: 66
John Hoeven: 66
Lisa Murkowski: 66
Bill Cassidy: 64
Kevin Cramer: 64
Cindy Hyde-Smith: 62
John Thune: 62
Pat Toomey: 62
Thom Tillis: 61
Rand Paul: 60
Steve Daines: 59
Tim Scott: 58
Martha McSally: 57
Dan Sullivan: 57
Ted Cruz: 55
James Lankford: 55
Mike Lee: 52
Marco Rubio: 52
Joni Ernst: 51
Todd Young: 51
Ben Sasse: 49
Cory Gardner: 47
Josh Hawley: 46
Tom Cotton: 44
So if every Republican Senator who would be over 70 at the start of his/her next term voted to convict, that would do it. I don't realistically expect that, but a few of these could happen. (Starting with Romney, I guess.) Add in some younger Senators who either consider themselves mavericks, come from "purple" states, have publicly criticized Trump, have been publicly insulted by Trump (which amounts to the same thing), or would prefer to see a theocrat like Pence in office: Collins, Cruz, Gardner, Graham, Paul, Portman, and Rubio. There are a few more who don't face re-election until 2024, by which time voters will have other things on their minds than a 2020 vote on impeachment. McConnell is in lock-step with Trump now, but his loyalty is to the Republican Party, and if the wind blew the right way and he thought throwing Trump under a bus would save the Party, he would.
Still a long shot, but I'll take anything I can get....